2004 Predictions: Part 1
The first in a 6-part series analyzing the divisional races.
By Solonor Rasreth
MIDDLE EARTH - What will the upcoming year hold in store? Who will be the standout players of 2004? Can the Wargs repeat as champions? And what about the new owners? How will Dagorlad and Gondor getting new team management, Bag End's name change to Silvan and Palantir's settling down in Rohan affect the balance of play? What will Smeagol do with a full season at the helm of Numenor? And what about last year's winningest team? How will the move to Buckland affect the Lonely Mountain Losers, now that they're the Bucklebury Fairies? Not to mention stadium changes by Misty Mountain, Bywater, Numenor and Mirkwood--some drastic.
MESN helps you try to sort it all out in this 6-part series, focusing on each divisional race.
Shire Conference - Elf Division
While all of the races look tight, this looks to be the toughest division. Last year's winner, Cirith Ungol, was second only to Lonely Mountain in victories. But they lost a few players to free agency, where Rivendell did not. Meanwhile, both Mirkwood and Old Forest came into the off-season looking to improve on their poor showing. Our predictions:
Rivendell
The Royals retained their excellent bullpen of Misur Orebender (11-6, 26 Saves, 3.30 ERA), Gandigol Gamauma (5-6, 3.31 ERA), Dejahor Anuwen (8-3, 3.22 ERA) and Thautai Sariand (3.22 ERA, 11 Saves). They just need a couple of starters that can make it to the 6th or 7th inning to go along with ace Tavus Legithraviel (14-9, 3.18 ERA). All-Star outfielder Thurzava Sang (.357, 18 HR, 79 RBI) returns, along with second baseman Mororon Meriawyn (.321, 23 HR, 70 RBI) and sluggers Wigor Toothdragger (39 HR, 120 RBI) and Praggek Halflinglover (37 HR, 97 RBI), to provide the bats.
Cirith Ungol
Returning is All-Star MVP candidate Grimli Goramir (.336, 42 HR, 119 RBI) and a host of power hitters. However, the Spiders lost a powerful left-handed first baseman, Vonus Tunnelsmelter (.293, 21 HR, 69 RBI), and a Legolas Fielder Award winning catcher Kimvia Elrilas (.309, 6 HR, 76 RBI) to free agency. A severe loss was the career-ending injury to starter Paraigast Merolob (14-7) at the end of 2003. Cirith Ungol made no free agent pickups during the off season, so we don't see how they can match last season's performance. But the Spiders' bats should match up to the Royals' arms very nicely down the stretch.
Mirkwood
The Marauders are the mirror image of the Royals in their pitching staff. Where the Royals are strong in the bullpen with some quality starters, Mirkwood has an abundance of starting pitching, adding free agent Ban Arwodur to a staff that has Hidush Elfbelly (13-12, 3.71 ERA) and Franak Derroeater (13-14, 3.77 ERA). And closer Disin Axesmith (3.79 ERA, 30 Saves) kept left handers to a .091 batting average. The Marauders just don't have anyone with power. Their top homerun hitter, Vusin Tunnelworker, only hit 28 while sporting a dismal .224 batting average. The team seems to be abandoning hope of getting a decent power hitter with its recent push back of the outfield fences at Woodland Field. But if it can manage to get a few high-average speed burners, like youngster Mohair Catsquisher (who hit .352 in 25 games in September), they will be right in the thick of things.
Old Forest
Last season, the Merry Fellows were pathetic. There is no denying that. But Tom Bombadil's crew of merry losers isn't sitting around crying in their ale. The team went out and spent some money in the off season, snapping up catcher Kimvia Elrilas and first baseman Vonus Tunnelsmelter from Cirith Ungol and All Star third baseman Sisin Silvertwister (.273, 28 HR, 101 RBI) from Wilderland. But the team is still very young. There is a lot of hitting talent out there--led by 17-year-old phenom Eldarion Aragornson--but it might take another season or two to mature. The same can be said for their pitching. 21-year-old Boriam "Kid K" Celebrin struck out a league-leading 271 batters, but he gave up a lot of hits (and runs) on his way to a 6-15 record and a 5.26 ERA.